H5N1 Poised to Go Global

Here's yet another sobering analysis on the rapid spread of H5N1 from Recombinomics.

"The detection of bird flu in a dead seagull in northern Finland provides additional evidence for a worldwide spread of H5N1, setting the stage for a major pandmeic.  Although H5N1 wild bird flu has yet to be confirmed, the official statement that the bird flu is not H5N1 has been the common initial official comment on H5N1 when it is reported for the first time.  At Qinghai Lake the H5N1 was initial said to not be bird flu.  In Russia and Kazahkstan, H5N1 was said to be H5N2.  In Mongolia, after H5N1 had been confirmed at Qinghai Lake, Chany Lake and Kazakhstan, the H5 result was still interpreted as an indication that H5N1 was not H5N1.  Thus, the statement that H5N1 was possible but not likely, was a clear statement that the bird flu was almost certainly H5N1.  Not mentioned in most of the media reports was the fact that indeed, 50 dead gulls had been found in Oulo.

H5N1 in northern Finland is not a surprise,  Birds from northern Siberia migrate to warmer locations in Europe. and these bird fly over Finland.  This is right time of migration from northern Siberia and infections in Russia strongly suggest the birds in northern Siberia are H5N1 positive.

Birds in northern Siberia also migrate to Alaska, and birds from Alaska spread out across North and South America.  Thus, H5N1 in northern Siberia can widely disperse H5N1.  H5N1 can replicate easily in a wide variety of tissues and has gained significant evolutionary advantage.  Consequently, it is being established in a number of regions, and this increased gene pool will increase the chance of recombination and acquisition of the mammalian receptor binding domain,

The receptor binding domain can be acquired from mammalian sub-strains, but can also be collect from the mammalian sequences in birds.  Thus, an expanded host range offers many unique opportunities for recombination."

-"Looming Pandemic Looms Larger", Recombinomics commentary, August 27, 2005

Months or years from now, I hope to look back on this time and laugh, much as I do now when I look back and think about all the apocalyptic gibberish that surrounded Y2K.

For the time being, as viral emissaries of sickness and death are being carried around the world on the migratory paths of hundreds, perhaps thousands of birds, I can only watch, wait, prepare as best I can, and hope.